AUKUS was sold to Australians as a transformational defence agreement that would deliver a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines and strengthen the nation’s security for decades to come. But nearly five years after the deal was announced, the questions are mounting while all the answers remain elusive.
With Defence Minister Richard Marles confirming that Australia will receive second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the United States, we need to know how a project expected to cost up to $368 billion has shifted from promises of new submarines to used ones, which have use-by date of 33 years. At the same time, Australia continues to spend billions helping expand American and British shipbuilding capacity, despite growing uncertainty over exactly what will be delivered, when it will arrive, and whether Australia will have meaningful control over the program.
As former Labor minister Peter Garrett begins an independent review of AUKUS, the spotlight is falling on one of the most expensive public policy decisions in Australian history. Why has there never been a comprehensive parliamentary inquiry into the agreement? What does Australia actually gain from the deal? And how much sovereignty is being surrendered as Australia’s defence infrastructure becomes increasingly integrated with the United States and Britain?
We examine the escalating costs, shifting promises and strategic assumptions behind AUKUS, why Australia appears to be carrying much of the financial risk, and whether the country is becoming locked into the geopolitical priorities of others. As global politics continues to change and governments come and go, is AUKUS a visionary defence investment, or an extraordinarily expensive gamble that Australia may come to regret?
