For years, the public was told that conflict with Iran was unavoidable. Successive governments in the US and Israel have argued that diplomacy had failed, sanctions had reached their limits, and military action was the only remaining option. When the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in February, the consequences arrived quickly: oil prices surged, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, inflationary pressures intensified, and global markets braced for a wider regional war.
Four months later, the United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding, with a broader ceasefire agreement expected to follow. Yet the central question remains: what exactly was achieved?
Despite repeated claims that Iran represented an existential threat requiring military intervention, the Iranian state remains intact. The government survived the conflict, sanctions are being eased, frozen assets are being released, and Iranian oil exports are set to expand. The outcome appears remarkably similar to what could have been achieved through diplomacy from the outset, raising serious questions about the strategic rationale behind a war that imposed enormous economic and human costs while producing few tangible political gains.
The political implications are equally significant. Donald Trump abandoned the international nuclear agreement with Iran, arguing that it was too favourable to Tehran. Nearly a decade later, Iran is on the verge of securing a more advantageous settlement than the one Washington rejected. At the same time, Israel’s strategy of pushing for confrontation has drawn greater international scrutiny of its broader regional conduct, including its genocidal actions in Gaza and Lebanon, while increasing public scepticism toward Western support for Israeli policy.
As governments debate regional security, nuclear negotiations and future sanctions arrangements, ordinary people have experienced the consequences through higher fuel prices, increased living costs and prolonged economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, defence contractors, commodity traders and financial speculators have emerged among the few clear beneficiaries of the conflict.
We explore the strategic failures of the United States and Israel, the changing balance of power in the Middle East, the role of diplomacy in ending the conflict, and why so many observers are now asking whether this war achieved anything at all.
