The Liberal Party’s crisis is no longer temporary. After two consecutive federal election defeats and a collapse in its primary vote from 41 per cent in 2019 to recent polling lows of around 17 per cent, the party faces a deeper question: does it still possess a viable place in Australian politics?
Six months into his leadership, Angus Taylor has failed to establish a clear political identity, impose discipline on the Coalition or persuade voters that the Liberal Party understands why it lost office. Instead of beginning the long process of rebuilding, the party is fixated on devising a strategy for forlorn hope of winning the 2028 federal election – an ambition that looks increasingly detached from reality.
Labor’s weaknesses should be creating opportunities for the opposition, where Anthony Albanese remains vulnerable on housing affordability, the cost of living, productivity and declining living standards. But voters can be disappointed with the Labor government while still regarding the Coalition as an unacceptable alternative.
The Liberal Party is also being squeezed from both directions, where One Nation is attracting parts of its conservative base, and Labor, the Greens and community independents have captured many moderate and metropolitan voters. What remains is a diminished organisation struggling to decide whether its future lies in the political centre or in the conservative populism associated with Donald Trump and the US Republican Party.
These divisions are being intensified by strained relations with the Nationals, dysfunctional state branches and the growing influence of the religious right. Evidence presented to Operation Rosny at the NSW ICAC has drawn attention to the Reformers, a conservative Christian network seeking influence over Liberal Party branches, preselections and policies concerning abortion, voluntary assisted dying, transgender rights and same-sex marriage.
The Coalition’s response to Australia’s housing crisis reveals the same underlying confusion. Shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg has proposed reducing requirements in the National Construction Code and suggested that lower-income Australians may have to accept lower-quality housing. But poorly built, inefficient homes do not create genuine affordability: they transfer costs into higher energy bills, greater maintenance expenses and worse living conditions.
Bragg’s description of compulsory superannuation as “repressive”, communist and neo-Marxist also reflects the Liberal Party’s growing reliance on imported American culture-war rhetoric. Language that may animate sections of the US Republican base offers little practical response to the economic pressures facing Australian households.
The Victorian state election will provide the next major test. The Liberals may benefit from dissatisfaction with an unpopular government, but winning because the other side is rejected is not the same as rebuilding political relevance. In an increasingly fragmented two-party system, Australian elections risk becoming contests over which party voters consider least unacceptable – not which offers the strongest vision for the country.
