One Nation’s byelection win in Secret Harbour is a warning sign for the Albanese government, and the federal Labor Party would be wise to read it correctly. We look at why a minor party gained an 18 per cent swing in a seat WA Labor had held for 37 years, and why the usual response from Canberra – branding Pauline Hanson dangerous and divisive – is failing to land after three decades of repetition.
Western Australia’s economy is strong, and the state government has delivered visible infrastructure over nearly a decade in office, but none of that mattered in Secret Harbour. Voters are increasingly judging governments through the lens of their own household pressures: unaffordable housing, high rents, stagnant wages and public services that feel stretched thin. A win for One Nation isn’t necessarily an endorsement of One Nation’s policy platform, which remains thin and would likely unravel under scrutiny. It’s better understood as a protest against establishment politics as usual, and a signal that populist momentum, previously confined to the Coalition side of politics, has now crossed over to claim a seat from Labor for the first time in Western Australia.
Labor risks legitimising One Nation’s rhetoric by chasing its agenda on immigration and other issues, and they’re displaying the disconnect between government communication efforts and the seriousness of the cost-of-living crisis.
Despite this victory by One Nation, there needs to be some perspective. One Nation holds just one seat in a 59-seat WA parliament, and byelections are a low-stakes way for voters to register a protest without changing a government. But the pattern is becoming harder to dismiss: wins in South Australia, the seat of Farrer taken from the Liberal Party, and now Secret Harbour taken from Labor suggest opinion polling is starting to translate into real electoral results.
With the next state election in 2029 and the next federal election in 2028, Labor has time to change course – but only if it treats economic dissatisfaction as the core problem, rather than treating Pauline Hanson as the problem itself.
