Trump’s assassination attempt and Biden’s withdrawal: The surreal state of American politics

This 2014 US election will determine whether the US can navigate this tumultuous period and emerge with its democratic institutions intact.

The recent attempted assassination of US Presidential candidate Donald Trump during a public rally is a reminder of the unpredictable and often surreal nature of contemporary American politics. In a country where bizarre and shocking events are becoming almost routine, this incident still managed to stand out due to its sheer audacity and the subsequent controversies it has sparked – the shooter, positioned on a rooftop in clear view of the rally attendees, initiated a sequence of events that felt more like a scene from a Hollywood thriller than real life, and the Secret Service’s inept response and the overall security lapse have drawn intense scrutiny and debate.

After the assassin was killed by Secret Services, the scene escalated dramatically, with Trump appearing as a defiant, bloodstained figure, pumping his fist before being hurried off stage. This image alone has fueled a wave of speculation and conspiracy theories, with many questioning the authenticity of the event and it is this scepticism that highlights the deeply polarised and distrustful state of American politics.

Trump’s reaction to the incident, notably his decision to make a public show of defiance immediately afterward, aligns with his known penchant for dramatic and often reckless behaviour. Comparing this incident to the 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan highlights the differences in security responses – Reagan was swiftly shielded and removed from danger without theatrics, whereas Trump’s response was more visibly chaotic and less controlled.

The broader implications of this event are significant. It highlights the deteriorating trust in political narratives and the increasing tendency of the public to question official accounts. However, it is Trump’s history of public deceit since his 2015 campaign that complicates the public’s ability to discern truth from fabrication and this erosion of trust in the political system is symptomatic of a deeper malaise affecting American democracy.

Adding to this complexity is President Joe Biden’s unexpected decision to withdraw from the 2024 election campaign, and this development introduces a new layer of uncertainty and speculation into an already volatile political climate. While he will remain President until January 2025, Biden’s withdrawal is a pragmatic response to his poor political campaign performance and the growing turmoil and polarisation, and a strategic move within a broader, more convoluted game of political chess being played out by the Democrats.

Within the context of these extraordinary events, the challenges of restoring trust and ensuring effective governance in the United States become ever more daunting, and these factors set the stage for a deeply contentious and unpredictable political future, not just for America, but the international community as well.

The political spectacle and the ramifications

In the days following the attempt, Trump made a dramatic and extravagant appearance at the Republican convention, sporting a conspicuous bandage on his ear, serving as a poignant reminder of the attempt on his life, ensuring the event remained fresh in the minds of the public and reinforcing his narrative of victimhood.

Trump’s fist-pumping moment, captured with blood on his face against the backdrop of the American flag, was a masterclass in political theatre. The Secret Service’s pause on the stage seemed to allow photographers to frame the perfect shot leading to many people believing the incident was choreographed but whatever the case, the image evoked a powerful response from Trump, in his attempt to solidify his media persona as a defiant patriot who narrowly escaped death.

In politics, such moments are invaluable and it’s obvious that a political party – especially a US Republican party – will exploit the circumstances for political gain. The comparisons to the Reichstag fire of 1933, where the Nazis exploited the event to consolidate power by blaming their opponents, are not far-fetched. MAGA Republicans quickly pointed fingers at Biden and the Democrats for responsibility for this attack, despite the shooter being a registered Republican. The truth of the attack’s origins and the intentions behind it became secondary to the narrative that Trump was a survivor of an assassination attempt and this narrative alone was potent enough to galvanise his base supporters and frame the election campaign narrative.

For Trump’s base, this incident reinforced their loyalty, portraying him as a martyr under siege. Conversely, the Democratic base, already fragmented and uncertain, was thrown into further disarray, until the moment that Biden withdrew his nomination. The incident didn’t seem to sway undecided voters or shift the polls significantly, although it may be too early to see how the voting patterns will be affected by this event. Unlike more mainstream candidates, Trump’s support base is deeply entrenched, driven by a mix of admiration and revulsion that leaves little room for neutrality.

The announcement of JD Vance as Trump’s vice-presidential pick the day after the assassination attempt was a strange move, one fraught with risk, considering that he is an even more polarising and ideologically-driven candidate than Trump, despised by both Republicans and Democrats. This choice might parallel Sarah Palin’s selection by John McCain in 2008 – a move that initially energised the base but ultimately alienated broader support. This choice could also deter swing voters and those disenchanted with Trump’s antics, potentially weakening his position despite the initial rallying effect of the assassination attempt.

The shooting, initially dominating the news cycle, quickly receded as the focus shifted to Trump’s vice-presidential announcement and Trump’s strategy appears to be a high-risk gamble that hinges on maintaining the fervour of his core supporters while trying to navigate the broader electorate’s complex landscape.

This incident encapsulates the surreal and often bewildering state of American politics. The attempted assassination, instead of becoming a sobering moment of reflection and unity, has been weaponised in the relentless pursuit of political gain. As the dust settles from this dramatic week of an attempted assassination on Trump and Biden’s resignation from the campaign, it remains unclear how this will influence the broader dynamics of the 2024 election. The narrative of Trump’s survival and his subsequent choices reflect a political environment where spectacle often overshadows substance, and the line between reality and performance becomes increasingly blurred.

Global reactions and Democratic challenges

The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed solidarity with the American people, condemning the violence and emphasising shared democratic values and his response highlights the global resonance of such events and the intricate web of political and cultural ties that bind nations like Australia and the United States.

Albanese’s statement highlighted the fundamental principles of democracy: the right to express views, debate disagreements, and resolve differences peacefully. His remarks, while supportive and diplomatic, also reflected a sense of disbelief and concern about the state of American politics. The pervasive gun violence, epitomised by the Capitol Hill riots in 2021 and frequent mass shootings, paints a picture of a nation dealing with deep-seated issues. Despite these challenges, American leaders, including Biden, have repeatedly stated that such violence does not define the nation, claiming that “this is not who we are”. However, the persistence of these issues suggests otherwise: this is exactly what America is.

Trump’s rhetoric has consistently been a catalyst for division and violence. His refusal to accept the 2020 election results and his incitement of the Capitol Hill riots are prime examples of his incendiary approach. His public statements often flirt with calls for retribution, violence and chaos, which resonate with a significant portion of the electorate that seems to thrive on the unpredictability and drama he brings to the political arena. This chaotic atmosphere characterised much of his first term in office, leading to discussions about invoking the 25th Amendment due to his perceived unfitness for the presidency.

The tumultuous nature of Trump’s presidency, marked by corruption, incompetence, and daily drama, raises serious questions about his suitability for office. Despite these concerns, his base remains steadfast, yearning for more of the same chaos and instability. The charges against him and the possibility of further legal consequences – remembering that Trump is already a convicted felon for illegally influencing the outcome of the 2016 election – also highlight the gravity of his actions. Yet, his support remains robust, particularly in the context of polling data that, despite being hard to believe, shows him as a serious contender in the 2024 election.

The international perspective, as seen through the reactions from Australian leaders and public discourse, reveals a mixture of bemusement and concern. Australia’s political landscape, while different in many respects, still shares the values of democratic governance and peaceful resolution of conflicts, although Trump’s behaviour after the 2020 election and the subsequent Capitol Hill riots suggests that this is not always the case.

The looming threat of a Trump victory and global implications

Many commentators – and betting markets – are now suggesting that a Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election seems almost inevitable, unless the Democrats can rally behind a strong replacement for Biden, who is likely to be Kamala Harris, the current Vice-President. With the election just four months away, the political landscape is still volatile, and anything could happen, and history is littered with examples where candidates were predicted to win an election, yet unexpectedly failed at the final hurdle: Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H. Bush in 1992, Al Gore in 2000, Hilary Clinton in 2016. It’s a cliché but polls are meaningless in deciding elections: it’s the tally of the vote on the election day that matters the most.

However, it feels as though American politics is being swept along by the chaotic force that is Donald Trump, and his brand of politics is far more disruptive and damaging that anything seen before in contemporary American politics and is supported by a cadre of dangerous ideologues.

The emergence of figures associated with Project 2025 and the conservative Heritage Foundation signals a more organised yet ominous approach than Trump’s previous term as President between 2017–2021. If elected, Trump would likely be more prepared to implement his agenda, but in ways that could further destabilise American democracy through a lethal mixture of fascism and evangelism.  

Prime Minister Albanese has emphasised the shared values between the US and Australia, but the alignment needs to stop short of endorsing the extreme elements backing Trump. These ideologues represent a dangerous shift that Australia, and the world, must be wary of. The potential for a second Trump presidency brings significant concerns, particularly in the context of global power dynamics. With China’s continuing rise, another term for Trump might accelerate America’s decline as the pre-eminent global power. While the US is expected to survive even a Trump presidency, the damage to its institutions and international standing could be profound and Australia would be wise to reassess its relationship with the US if Trump returns to power, given the likely negative repercussions.

Generally, there is a deep and abiding reverence among the American people for institutions such as the Supreme Court and the office of the presidency. This respect is something that Trump has repeatedly undermined, and it could be his undoing with moderate voters. The Project 2025 manifesto, seen by many as a thinly veiled fascist agenda, threatens the foundational values of American democracy and Trump’s disregard for institutional norms may alienate the political centre, potentially thwarting his bid for re-election.

The initial shock of the assassination attempt on Trump has faded into the background, and has been overshadowed by subsequent events and controversies. The focus has now shifted to Kamala Harris as the Democratic frontrunner, with Trump and the Republicans launching crude and unhinged attacks against her, again, a reaction that highlights the bizarre and volatile state of American politics, especially from the reactionary parts of the Republican party.

In this strange and unpredictable time, the 2024 election promises to be a watershed moment. The direction America takes will have profound implications not only for its own future but for global stability and democratic values worldwide. The challenges posed by Trump’s potential return to power, coupled with the internal difficulties within the Democratic Party, set the stage for a fiercely contested and important election. The outcome will determine whether the US can navigate through this tumultuous period and emerge with its democratic institutions intact.