Authoritarian politics thrives on the appearance of inevitability: the strongman who cannot be defeated, the opposition can never be allowed to govern, and voters have nowhere else to go. Election results in Serbia and Brazil have challenged that narrative, raising a question with consequences that go far beyond their borders: what happens when people stop believing that political power is untouchable?
In this episode, we examine three elections that complicate the narrative of an unstoppable global far right – and consider what they mean for Australian politics, Donald Trump and the approaching US midterm elections.
In Serbia, the student-backed movement’s victory over Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling party demonstrates how demands for accountability can become a powerful force. Protests following the deadly Novi Sad railway station collapse turned public grief into a broader challenge to corruption and institutional failure. These lessons go beyond Serbia: when governments treat public safety, civil liberties and accountability as obstacles to their authority, they can create the conditions that result in their own defeat.
Brazil offers a different message to the nationalist right. Lula da Silva’s defeat of Flávio Bolsonaro blocks a return to the presidency for the Bolsonaro political dynasty, while the close result reveals how deeply its appeal remains embedded. The outcome also complicates Donald Trump’s ambitions for regional influence and preserves Brazil’s independent role in international affairs, including through BRICS. Defeating a far-right candidate matters; rebuilding the public trust that sustains democracy remains a longer task.
Israel’s election presents a more troubling picture. Benjamin Netanyahu’s uncertain path back to government and a possible loss doesn’t automatically open a path towards justice for Palestinians. A change of prime minister means little if occupation, settlement expansion and the destruction of Gaza continue. The strength of Arab representation also tests whether Israeli leaders will respect Palestinian citizens’ democratic participation when their votes could determine who governs.
For Australia, these elections raise questions about political courage and foreign policy. Would a new Israeli government provide enough pressure for Palestinian rights, or simply provide a more comfortable diplomatic relationship? Recognition of Palestine needs practical support through diplomacy, economic measures and accountability, and the Albanese government should be judged by what their policies achieve.
With the US midterm elections approaching, the wider lesson is that nationalist politics can be challenged, but progressive change is never guaranteed. Governments earn legitimacy by improving people’s lives, protecting their rights and answering for their failures. When political leaders forget that, the voters will always send them a message to remind them.
