In this episode of New Politics, we look at the escalating United States–Iran conflict, and the growing risk that Australia is once again being pulled into another US-led war in the Middle East.
As tensions rise following US attacks on Iran, the geopolitical consequences are becoming impossible to ignore. The operation was supposed to send a clear signal that the United States and its allies – including Israel – still control the strategic balance of power in the Middle East and Western Asia. Instead, the strikes show deeper weaknesses in American global influence. Nearly 80 years after the post-World War II order established US dominance in the region, the international landscape is shifting quickly. China, Russia, Iran and emerging blocs such as BRICS are challenging the traditional Western-led order, raising questions about whether Washington can still shape global outcomes the way it once did.
After two weeks of strikes and escalating tensions, what exactly is the objective? Is this a calculated show of strength, or a chaotic attempt to reassert control over a region that is slipping from Washington’s grip? The United States still possesses the most powerful military force in the world, but history – from Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq – shows that overwhelming military capability does not automatically mean political or strategic success.
Another deeply unsettling element influencing American decision-making is the growing role of religious ideology in US politics and foreign policy. The rise of Christian Zionism and evangelical influence within sections of the US political establishment has created a powerful ideological current shaping debates around Israel, Iran, and the wider Middle East. When theology begins to merge with military strategy, the implications for global stability become deeply concerning.
Meanwhile, Australia’s position in this unfolding conflict raises profound questions about national sovereignty and strategic independence. The Albanese government has already deepened Australia’s defence integration with the United States through AUKUS, and now Australian military personnel and hardware are being deployed to the region as tensions escalate.
In practical terms, the current deployment might seem modest – around 80 Australian Defence Force personnel and surveillance aircraft operating from the UAE – but history suggests these commitments can quickly expand. Small deployments often become long wars, leaving Australians decades later asking the same question: what was it all for?
As global power structures shift and new alliances emerge, the central question facing Australia is becoming harder to avoid: does the country have any real strategic independence, or is it permanently locked into the politics of the United States? With tensions in the Middle East escalating, the consequences of that question may soon become impossible to ignore.
