Really good essay but not a single word about race which to me is the elephant in the room. The Nationals and Hanson are motivated by race much more than is acknowledged. They are the last vestiges of white Australia and the absolutism of property ownership and can't conceive that shit kickers are entitled to a fair go and that the shit kickers might actually expect to get one.
Trumpism is the same and hitting similar buffers, but the Nationals and Hanson adore Trump as do segments of the Liberal Party. Unfortunately for them, this has little appeal to ordinary people and as Trump blows up the Western world, what appeal there is will diminish further.
As always be careful what you wish for. Let's hope they all follow Cory Bernardi off into the wilderness, doomed to forever shake their fists at clouds.
And Labor moves Rightward to capture some of the defections, to make themselves unassailable? And, I suppose, to differentiate themselves from Greens at the risk of losing some of their own, confident that preferences will compensate for any lost primary votes heading that direction. But moving Rightward means appeasing commerce and industry and their media mouthpieces and becoming what they ostensibly oppose.
As David has said with an eye to history in previous podcasts, the defeat in 2025 has rhymes with the decisive UAP defeat in 1943. With such a discrediting of the conservative establishment, what comes next?
I’ve come round to thinking it’s worse than 1943. Menzies and a couple of others of the 1949 cabinet were still in parliament. And there was a talent pool outside parliament who were willing to join the new party - Hasluck, Casey, Enid Lyons etc.
There’s no one in the current party who can lead their way out of this - Hastie is delusional in his understanding of the popularity of his views. Taylor is dead in the water, and was never going to be pm anyway. Patricia Karvelas mourned the loss of Wolahan, but he was not any kind of philosophical leader. He might have been a good member of cabinet, able to construct practical policies but there was no overarching consistent vision. There’s no one else with a national reputation in the party. And as far as I can see no figures waiting in the wings. How many barristers dreamed of being Attorney general in a liberal government - following in the footsteps of Latham, Joske, Barwick, and others? I doubt you’d find a senior lawyer willing to give up his or her practice to take the role now, not only because the party is out of government probably permanently. The party of Menzies and Fraser and Howard has become the party of Morrison and Dutton.
I want the term *"ONIONs"* to describe the One Nation & Nationals union to become mainstream. Can you spread the word? Read more and subscribe http://preceperi.substack.com/p/the-onion
Having also lost control of the more or less concomitant NSW state electorate of Orange, the Nats wanted to win Calare so badly they could taste it. They spent a shed load of money based on the prevalence of Sam Farraway posters across the Division to those for Hook, Gee et al. The ALP wisely ran dead and Gee coasted home on 2nd, 3rd, and greater preferences.
Notably at the booths (pre-poll and on the day) was the large cohort of Menonite and EB menfolk handing out HTVs for Farraway. However, their boyish enthusiasm tended to put otherwise Nat voters off.
When the Liberals dumped Malcolm Turnbull as Leader despite him winning an election, they showed they were no longer a party of the centre.
Morrison and Dutton moved the Libs to the right, and the voters they abandoned in the centre shifted mainly to the teal Independents. I'm thinking of people like Sophie Scamps on the Northern Beaches.
Similar voters also dumped Tony Abbott.
Albanese has focussed Labor in the 'sensible centre' where it can draw support from both the Greens to the left (e.g. gun laws, environmental protection) and the Independents.
The Nationals remain a rural rump while One Nation attracts the would-be Trumpers.
However, Trump is destroying his own support and spiralling into inevitable gaol, so Hanson will soon lose her hero, which will be positive, so One Nation's support is likely to fall, particularly after Joyce's credibility with Nationals voters is undermined by his own opportunism in defecting to One Nation.
The old saying is that elections are won in the centre.
The Nats, One Nation and Greens were never in the centre.
The Liberals abandoned the centre during Dutton's failed attempt to shift to regional centres.
That leaves Labor and the Independents in the centre.
Albanese's huge majority in the House should last several elections, while Labor has been able to get the support it needs to pass bills in the Senate.
The Liberals have a choice: reinvent themselves as an urban centre party, or continue to shrivel up.
Maybe they could invite Malcolm Turnbull back? (not that he'd answer the call - once bitten, twice shy).
Ban all parties!
Everyone runs as an independent!
Taxes fund each identically!
Electorates tricky but do-able!
Law and Policy by majority vote!
Must be a Bill of rights …..
……
Really good essay but not a single word about race which to me is the elephant in the room. The Nationals and Hanson are motivated by race much more than is acknowledged. They are the last vestiges of white Australia and the absolutism of property ownership and can't conceive that shit kickers are entitled to a fair go and that the shit kickers might actually expect to get one.
Trumpism is the same and hitting similar buffers, but the Nationals and Hanson adore Trump as do segments of the Liberal Party. Unfortunately for them, this has little appeal to ordinary people and as Trump blows up the Western world, what appeal there is will diminish further.
As always be careful what you wish for. Let's hope they all follow Cory Bernardi off into the wilderness, doomed to forever shake their fists at clouds.
And Labor moves Rightward to capture some of the defections, to make themselves unassailable? And, I suppose, to differentiate themselves from Greens at the risk of losing some of their own, confident that preferences will compensate for any lost primary votes heading that direction. But moving Rightward means appeasing commerce and industry and their media mouthpieces and becoming what they ostensibly oppose.
Thanks Eddy and David.
As David has said with an eye to history in previous podcasts, the defeat in 2025 has rhymes with the decisive UAP defeat in 1943. With such a discrediting of the conservative establishment, what comes next?
I’ve come round to thinking it’s worse than 1943. Menzies and a couple of others of the 1949 cabinet were still in parliament. And there was a talent pool outside parliament who were willing to join the new party - Hasluck, Casey, Enid Lyons etc.
There’s no one in the current party who can lead their way out of this - Hastie is delusional in his understanding of the popularity of his views. Taylor is dead in the water, and was never going to be pm anyway. Patricia Karvelas mourned the loss of Wolahan, but he was not any kind of philosophical leader. He might have been a good member of cabinet, able to construct practical policies but there was no overarching consistent vision. There’s no one else with a national reputation in the party. And as far as I can see no figures waiting in the wings. How many barristers dreamed of being Attorney general in a liberal government - following in the footsteps of Latham, Joske, Barwick, and others? I doubt you’d find a senior lawyer willing to give up his or her practice to take the role now, not only because the party is out of government probably permanently. The party of Menzies and Fraser and Howard has become the party of Morrison and Dutton.
It’s like 1943 but with no real way out.
I want the term *"ONIONs"* to describe the One Nation & Nationals union to become mainstream. Can you spread the word? Read more and subscribe http://preceperi.substack.com/p/the-onion
Calare 2025 result.
Having also lost control of the more or less concomitant NSW state electorate of Orange, the Nats wanted to win Calare so badly they could taste it. They spent a shed load of money based on the prevalence of Sam Farraway posters across the Division to those for Hook, Gee et al. The ALP wisely ran dead and Gee coasted home on 2nd, 3rd, and greater preferences.
Notably at the booths (pre-poll and on the day) was the large cohort of Menonite and EB menfolk handing out HTVs for Farraway. However, their boyish enthusiasm tended to put otherwise Nat voters off.
When the Liberals dumped Malcolm Turnbull as Leader despite him winning an election, they showed they were no longer a party of the centre.
Morrison and Dutton moved the Libs to the right, and the voters they abandoned in the centre shifted mainly to the teal Independents. I'm thinking of people like Sophie Scamps on the Northern Beaches.
Similar voters also dumped Tony Abbott.
Albanese has focussed Labor in the 'sensible centre' where it can draw support from both the Greens to the left (e.g. gun laws, environmental protection) and the Independents.
The Nationals remain a rural rump while One Nation attracts the would-be Trumpers.
However, Trump is destroying his own support and spiralling into inevitable gaol, so Hanson will soon lose her hero, which will be positive, so One Nation's support is likely to fall, particularly after Joyce's credibility with Nationals voters is undermined by his own opportunism in defecting to One Nation.
The old saying is that elections are won in the centre.
The Nats, One Nation and Greens were never in the centre.
The Liberals abandoned the centre during Dutton's failed attempt to shift to regional centres.
That leaves Labor and the Independents in the centre.
Albanese's huge majority in the House should last several elections, while Labor has been able to get the support it needs to pass bills in the Senate.
The Liberals have a choice: reinvent themselves as an urban centre party, or continue to shrivel up.
Maybe they could invite Malcolm Turnbull back? (not that he'd answer the call - once bitten, twice shy).